Papal Conclave Explained: How the Next Pope Will Be Chosen After Pope Francis?

There’s an old adage about papal elections: “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal.” In essence, any cardinal considered a frontrunner before voting begins should be viewed with caution. No one should walk into the Sistine Chapel expecting victory.

At the 2013 conclave, Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan was widely seen as a favorite. So confident were the Italian bishops in his chances that, following the appearance of white smoke, a senior church official prematurely celebrated Scola’s election in a message to reporters. However, it was Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio who ultimately emerged as Pope.

The upcoming conclave will be pivotal in shaping the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church. Thanks to Pope Francis’ reforms, the field is more open than ever.

Throughout his pontificate, Francis restructured the College of Cardinals to better reflect the global Church. He moved away from the tradition of automatically elevating bishops from certain prominent dioceses—particularly in Italy—and instead appointed cardinals from historically overlooked regions such as Tonga, Haiti, and Papua New Guinea. Many of these new electors are less embedded in the traditional Roman system, making the outcome of the vote more unpredictable.

Despite the wider field, only a few cardinals possess the right combination of experience, skills, and leadership qualities needed to guide the Church.

Electors will need to weigh the current priorities of the Church and decide whether the next pope should build on Francis’ legacy or chart a new path. They will be seeking someone capable of leading a global Church and offering a strong, credible moral voice on the world stage. Given the Church’s growing presence in Asia, speculation is mounting that the next pope could come from Southeast Asia.

Age will also factor into the decision. The last two conclaves favored older candidates, likely in hopes of shorter pontificates.

Potential papal candidates, known in Italian as “papabili” (literally, “pope-able”), are mostly appointees of Pope Francis, with a few selected by his predecessor, Benedict XVI. While there are clear frontrunners, surprise candidates may also emerge.

Among the possible contenders are Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, of Malta, who leads the Vatican’s synod office, and Cardinal Stephen Chow, 65, Bishop of Hong Kong, known for his diplomatic finesse and pastoral care.

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