Pakistan Vows Response to Indian Airstrikes: What Comes Next in Escalating Tensions?

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has pledged to retaliate against India’s recent airstrikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which occurred early Wednesday morning local time.

How Pakistan chooses to respond could determine whether tensions ease or spiral into a deeper conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

One potential route for Islamabad is to declare a symbolic victory, particularly if its claims of downing five Indian Air Force jets—including three French-made Rafale fighters—prove credible. “Pakistan could claim it inflicted damage on Indian military assets, even if the details remain unclear,” said Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and South Asia Program director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Another option is a direct military response. Pakistan may feel compelled to "respond in kind," especially as some Indian strikes reportedly hit the densely populated Punjab province, noted Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution.

Pakistan’s Army Chief Syed Asim Munir, perceived as more assertive than his predecessor General Qamar Javed Bajwa during the 2019 standoff, may choose to escalate further, Madan added.

Still, with India warning of further retaliation if provoked, Islamabad might opt to keep its response calibrated and within limits. “Pakistan could stay below a certain threshold to avoid triggering a larger conflict,” Madan said.

Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has indicated that any retaliatory action would target Indian military sites only—not civilians.

Recent signals from Islamabad suggest a preference for a restrained approach, though Madan emphasized that all options remain on the table.